Predicting terrorism

This blog post by terrorism expert Brian Jenkins discusses the difficult challenge of predicting attacks. He notes that, outside of conflict zones, terror incidents remain infrequent — in 2015, “74 percent of all fatalities occurred in five countries: Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Syria, and Pakistan.” The post-9/11 prediction was for chemical, biological, and nuclear attacks, but homemade bombs and automatic weapons are still most common — “Terrorism appears to have escalated horizontally rather than vertically. Instead of weapons of mass destruction, there has been a proliferation of low-level attacks.”

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One Response to “Predicting terrorism”

  1. Gunther Says:

    Seems like the author did not predict about state sponsor terrorism attacks by the USA in Central and South America since the 1950s.

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