50/50 whether homicides get solved

The national clearance rate for homicides has fallen to about 50%, the lowest in more than 50 years, according to this article. It was 83% in 1965. A few states do substantially better than others — Alabama and Nebraska were best at 83% over the period 2015-2020, while Rhode Island was lowest at 21% (a quarter of the states have had data problems making it impossible to calculate their clearance rates over the 5-year period). The data also indicate lower clearance rates for victims of color. The article provides examples from several cities, noting an unusually high proportion of exceptional clearances in Chicago, which had a 44% clearance rate in 2020, but half were exceptional clearances.

Traffic deaths continuing to rise

Traffic fatalities increased by 18% in the first half of 2021, surprising safety officials, as reported here. The year before, 2020, had seen a 7% increase despite much less driving during the height of the pandemic. Experts had expected that to be a one-time anomaly, since the long-term trend had seen a 1/3 decrease in annual deaths between 1970 and 2019. Factors seem to include higher speeds, aggressive driving, failure to wear seat belts, and drug and alcohol impairment. One interpretation is that it’s “a symptom and a sign of the overall lack of consideration we’re showing for other citizens, whether it be wearing masks, or not getting vaccinated, or how we drive. It’s very aggressive. It’s very selfish.”

Medicaid funding for crisis response

The recent COVID relief bill has an estimated $1 billion in Medicaid funding over the next 10 years for mobile crisis teams, as reported here. Co-responder and non-police response models are becoming increasingly popular, although none have been rigorously evaluated. One official thinks “It’s really exciting to see the federal government support this model. I am hopeful that three years from now we will have multiple models and ideally some data that shows this has actually saved people’s lives.”

Gun deaths in the U.S.

This report provides a variety of information about gun deaths (murder, suicide, and accident) in the U.S. in 2018 and over the preceding decade, based on CDC data. Nationally over the 10-year period, gun death rates increased 18%, with suicide the most common category each year. Comparing states for total gun deaths in 2018, Mississippi, Alabama, Wyoming, and Missouri had the highest rates, more than 5 times higher than in Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Hawaii, and New York. Looking just at gun homicides, Mississippi had the highest rate in 2018, more than 10 times above the lowest, Utah.

Firearm homicides & suicides in metro areas

This CDC report looks at firearm homicides and suicides in 2015-2016 in the 50 largest metropolitan areas. New Orleans had the highest homicide rate by firearm, Providence the lowest. Oklahoma City had the highest firearm suicide rate, New York the lowest. Combining the two (homicides and suicides), Boston had the lowest rate of firearm deaths while New Orleans had the highest, followed by Birmingham and Memphis. An unusual case was Salt Lake City, which had the 6th lowest homicide rate, but the 2nd highest suicide rate.

2018 POP conference agenda

The Center for Problem Oriented Policing will hold its 28th annual conference November 5-7 in Providence, Rhode Island. The draft agenda and registration information are here. Among the presenters will be finalist agencies from New Zealand, the UK, and the US competing for the annual Herman Goldstein award.

2018 POP conference & Goldstein award

The deadline for submissions for the 2018 Herman Goldstein Award for Excellence in Problem-Oriented Policing is June 1st. Information about the award is available here. The 2018 POP Conference will be held November 5-7 in Providence, Rhode Island. Information about the conference is here.

Gun deaths of men by race & state

This article and video report an analysis of 9 years of U.S. death certificates, comparing non-Hispanic black and white men. Four findings stand out regarding men’s gun deaths: (1) nationally, black men were about 15 times more likely than white men to die of firearm homicides; (2) white men were almost 3 times more likely to die of gun suicides; (3) rates varied widely across the states; and (4) firearm homicides were higher in urban areas while gun suicides were higher in rural areas. Rhode Island had the lowest overall gun homicide rate, Missouri the highest. Massachusetts had the lowest firearm suicide rate, New Mexico the highest.

Gun death rates

This column compares the 50 states on gun death rates, noting that nationally, over half are suicides while 37% are homicides. Alaska, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Oklahoma have the highest gun death rates, all at least 5 times higher than Massachusetts, which has the lowest rate. Other states with the lowest rates are New York, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Connecticut.

2018 POP Conference scheduled

The 28th annual Problem-Oriented Policing (POP) Conference will be held November 5-7, 2018 in Providence, Rhode Island. Advance information about the conference, “often described by attendees as the most substantive policing conference they’ve ever attended,” is available here.